Mandel’s Mailbag: Which College Football Playoff first-round games could produce upsets?

It’s here. It’s finally here. A real-life 12-team College Football Playoff.

And yet, part of me still can’t fathom that I’m going to turn on my TV on Friday night and watch an Indiana-Notre Dame Playoff game broadcast live from the Golden Dome. Somehow this moment managed to sneak up on me after a mere 25 years covering the BCS/four-team CFP.

Note: Submitted questions have been lightly edited for length and clarity.

Which first-round games are the most likely to produce upsets? Do you think we’ll get any? — Greg S., Conn.

It would not be in keeping with the 2024 season for all four games to go chalk. I fully expect there to be upsets in the early rounds. But it’s tough to pinpoint which one(s).

Tennessee beating Ohio State is the easiest choice, mainly because we don’t know what kind of headspace the Buckeyes are in after their loss to Michigan. As Ohio State guru Cameron Teague Robinson wrote this week, it’s not an ideal matchup for Ryan Day’s team, as its precarious offensive line will have to contend with a stacked Tennessee defensive front. But I also find it hard to imagine the Vols moving the ball consistently against Jim Knowles’ defense.

I’m picking Ohio State, even though I’m expecting quite a few Vols fans to infiltrate the Horseshoe.

My actual upset pick is SMU winning at Penn State. Mustangs quarterback Kevin Jennings is a baller who can handle that road environment, and though the Nittany Lions’ rushing attack exploded against Oregon, SMU has the nation’s third-ranked run defense. I could be dead wrong, of course. Clemson’s Cade Klubnik threw four touchdowns against the Mustangs in the ACC Championship Game, so the window is there for Drew Allar. But between those two QBs, I’d rather ride with Jennings.

Most importantly, I do not believe, like some, that a team from south of the Mason-Dixon Line will lose the ability to play football in the 20-something-degree weather expected in Happy Valley on Saturday.

Speaking of Penn State …

Are we any closer to college football changing the winter transfer portal timing considering the Penn State backup QB situation and CFP? Would they ever consider a separate winter portal timing for quarterbacks based on the unique nature of that position? — Andrew W.

Everyone agrees the college football calendar is a disaster, but no one has a solution. The sport has to work around the academic calendar, and the Playoff now runs until Jan. 20, right around most schools’ deadlines to enroll for the second semester. Players such as Penn State’s Beau Pribula who want to be at their next school in time to participate in spring practice can’t wait to see how far their team makes it before entering the portal.

One suggestion is to get rid of the winter window and say the portal is open one time all year, in April. But coaches want players there for spring ball. Oftentimes, a player who wants to stay at his current school through the academic year to finish his degree finds his list of suitors diminished. And the coaches lamenting the current December chaos will be the same ones complaining if they don’t know who’s going to be on their roster until May.

On top of all that, everything is a lawsuit for the NCAA now. As soon as it puts in a new restriction limiting athletes’ movement, someone, somewhere is going to sue the organization. On what grounds, I don’t know. But remember, earlier this year, a group of state attorneys general won a surprising injunction that struck down all restrictions on transfer eligibility. Telling athletes they can’t switch schools between semesters seems ripe for a similar challenge.

Either you shift the season earlier (as I’ve been suggesting for three years) so there’s more of a buffer between the national championship game and the start of the spring semester, or you get rid of spring football, thus lessening the pressure to enroll early at a new school. Steve Sarkisian suggested that college football adopt the NFL’s OTA/minicamp model.

But forcing athletes to wait until the spring to go into the portal while keeping the rest of the sport the same is not a viable option.

Recently, we’ve seen some coaches either take pay cuts and have the savings funneled into name, image and likeness (Mike Gundy, Mike Norvell) or outright donate to the NIL fund (Brian Kelly). Is this the beginning of the market correcting itself now that players are getting paid? Will we see more big-name coaches making $5 million instead of $10 million so the school can do a better job of attracting talented players? — Andrew G., Houston

It might vary by school — North Carolina just gave $10 million per year to a first-time college coach, after all — but this feels like the beginning of a first-ever plateau. All it took was for the schools to finally have to set aside money for the players.

I noticed that Rich Rodriguez is getting a modest (by Power 4 coaching standards) $3.5 million in his first season back at West Virginia. That’s less than predecessor Neal Brown’s $4 million in 2024 and would have ranked 15th out of 16 in the Big 12 this season. West Virginia, to its credit, became the rare school to avoid negotiating against itself, which could help athletic director Wren Baker reach his stated goal of being “at or near” the expected $20.5 million revenue-sharing cap next year.

My first reaction to Norvell’s “restructured” contract — in which he’s redirecting $4.5 million of his $10 million salary next year to player payments — was other coaches are going to be ticked off. It’s unclear whether this was entirely Norvell’s decision or, coming off a 2-10 disaster, more of the Michigan-Jim Harbaugh pay cut blueprint. But now anytime a coach has a bad season, his fans are going to expect a similar concession.

If nothing else, I’d imagine the fully guaranteed 10-year contract era of 2017-21 has come to an end. So many of those massively one-sided deals have not panned out (Jimbo Fisher, Lincoln Riley, possibly Kelly), and schools are going to bankrupt themselves having to make revenue share and massive ongoing buyout payments every year.

When SMU joined the ACC, it famously agreed to forego TV revenue for nine years. But the Mustangs are eligible for other distributions from the conference, including for CFP appearances. How much do SMU and the ACC stand to gain from SMU’s appearance in the CFP? — Jake T., Dallas

The simple answer: SMU already has made $4 million for reaching the Playoff, and that number would get to $20 million if the Mustangs win the national championship. That’s because the ACC, in its perennial attempt to please Florida State and Clemson, instituted a “success initiative” model this year that sets aside some of the conference’s postseason revenue for the schools that earn it.

It’s a pretty straightforward formula.

Conferences receive $4 million for each school that reaches the CFP, another $4 million for those that advance to the quarterfinals (including teams with a bye), $6 million for reaching the semifinals and $6 million for making the championship game. Rather than distribute that equally to all members, the ACC is now passing it on straight to the participants. It will do the same thing with NCAA basketball units.

So basically, win the national championship, and SMU’s revenue-sharing payments for next year are covered.

Why is Alabama afraid of playing Illinois? First, Alabama tried to sneak into the Playoff to avoid matching up against Luke Altmyer and crew, and then Bama chose to go to an inferior bowl game just to avoid an embarrassing loss. What gives? WE WANT BAMA!!! — Chris, Frankfort Ill.

Indeed, a ReliaQuestionable decision to say the least. Going and beating up on Michigan instead of facing the wrath of Bret Bielema.

(Note to those not detecting the sarcasm: The Citrus Bowl passed on Bama, not vice versa.)

Major boosters such as Arizona Diamondbacks billionaire owner Ken Kendrick and ESPN star Pat McAfee reportedly are pouring big money into the West Virginia football program following the hiring of Rodriguez. Speaking to McAfee during Friday’s show, Rodriguez said, “You can win a national championship at West Virginia.” Given a major influx of funding in the era of NIL, the transfer portal and the 12-team Playoff, how realistic a goal is this? — Rick W., Chesapeake, Va.

First of all, West Virginia made the best hire so far this cycle, and there’s not a close second. But I realize not all Mountaineers fans agree with that sentiment given how ugly his exit for Michigan was 17 years ago.

Winning a national title at West Virginia is considerably more difficult than it was in 2007, simply because the Mountaineers can’t go 11-1 and skip straight to the championship game like they would have had that team not spit the bit against Pitt as a 28-point favorite at home. But West Virginia can be a lot better than it has been during the dozen years since joining the Big 12. It can win the conference and go to the CFP with the right coach. And Rich Rod, 61, is still that coach.

West Virginia lacks a natural talent base, but Rich Rod knows how to recruit to that school better than anyone. And I’d imagine he’ll use his recent experience in the Sun Belt and Conference USA to help load up on Group of 5 players in the portal. It’s also a program that has struggled to find an identity in the Big 12, where it never had much in common with the Texas/Oklahoma schools and now even less so with schools in Arizona and Utah. I couldn’t name one unique thing the Mountaineers did in six seasons under Brown.

But Rich Rod’s teams have an identity: They spread out defenses, go fast and run the ball down the defense’s throat. This season, Jacksonville State ranked behind only Army in rushing yards per game (267.3) and was seventh in yards per attempt (5.7). His offense has evolved, but it’s the same philosophy it was back with Pat White running zone reads with Steve Slaton. As he said to McAfee: “I still believe in playing with 11. Our quarterbacks are going to be part of the play, whether it’s a run or a pass, all the time.”

Building a contender in the new Big 12 is not as tall an order as in other leagues because there are not two Alpha programs lording over the other schools. Most are on roughly equal footing when it comes to recruiting and resources. If Arizona State can win the conference, certainly West Virginia can.

Is UNC better off with Bill Belichick or Mack Brown? — David H.

I realize I’m more skeptical of the Belichick hire than most, but Brown’s program was only trending downward. After winning the Coastal Division in 2022, UNC went 7-9 in the ACC the past two seasons and was suffering some truly horrendous defeats, most notably 70-50 to James Madison in Week 4, not to mention four straight losses to rival NC State (which was not great this year).

The Tar Heels needed a fresh start, and if nothing else, they’re about to get a year’s worth of Deion Sanders-esque free publicity from ESPN and others.

To Brown’s credit, he initially did exactly what fans had hoped and ramped up recruiting, landing star quarterbacks Sam Howell and Drake Maye and signing three straight top-15 classes from 2020 to 2022. The Tar Heels reached an Orange Bowl in Brown’s second season and won nine games in his fourth. But he never could figure out a formula on defense, failing to crack the top 60 nationally (and many times finishing well below that).

With Belichick, I have little doubt the Tar Heels will be as sound as they come up with schemes and game planning. My bigger concern is that the six-time Super Bowl champ and his general manager, Michael Lombardi, might think recruiting can be done staring at computers in a draft-style war room rather than in living rooms, high school hallways and via a million GIFs and emoji. The exact opposite of Brown’s problem.

Bruce Feldman and I had a lively discussion about this story on Monday’s episode of “The Audible.” He is much more reverential toward Belichick’s NFL acumen and much more bullish on his prospects as a college coach. But he, too, thinks this experiment will not last long, for a different reason. In his words: “I think he’ll do pretty well, be in the Top 25 in the first two years, and then I think he will leave because he will be like, ‘I hate this.’”

After Marshall pulled out of the Independence Bowl, Ralph Russo reported that 16 of the 18 5-7 teams, as ranked by Academic Progress Rate, declined to play before, mercifully, Louisiana Tech (ranked 17th in APR) did. If none of the 5-7 teams had agreed to play, what would have happened next? Turn to 4-8 teams? Shift a team over from another, lesser bowl? Cancel the game? — John C., Atlanta, which finally got a Torchy’s!

Oh, wow, thank you for letting me know where I’ll be going for lunch on Jan. 20.

The Independence Bowl got lucky that the last two schools on the list were in-state (Louisiana-Monroe was 18th), as I doubt both would have passed. If they had, the game probably would have been canceled, since no one on the NCAA or bowl side ever thought to put in a contingency plan for that scenario.

They should put one in now because this won’t be the last time a team opts out of a bowl. I understand why the bowl, AAC commissioner Tim Pernetti and Bowl Season executive director Nick Carparelli were upset with Marshall, but the Herd lost their top three quarterbacks to the portal after coach Charles Huff left for Southern Miss. That’s in addition to its top running back, three of the top seven receivers and four of their top seven tacklers. At some point, it’s no longer worth the trouble for what is going to be viewed as football’s version of the NIT, albeit with better TV ratings.

I’d be in favor of opening up bowls to anyone, regardless of their records. The notion of rewarding the teams that had the best seasons is largely antiquated at this point because, in many cases, those aren’t the same teams the school is fielding in the bowl. And there will be some 4-8 teams that are more excited to go to the L.A. Bowl and whose roster and coaching staffs are more intact than a 6-6 team’s.

I give a ton of credit to the Duke’s Mayo Bowl and Pop-Tarts Bowl folks for coming up with creative ways to make their games relevant even while overshadowed by the CFP. Let’s keep thinking outside the box and try to find some new tweaks to get the most out of bowl season.

After seeing the face value for national championship tickets near $1,000 for fans who purchase through their school, what is the approximate cost for two people to attend the quarters, semis and championship, including flight/hotel? — Wmamitch

You’ve come to the right place. I am a full-on travel-planning nerd. Sometimes I enjoy planning the logistics of a trip more than the trip itself. Finding under-the-radar hotel deals, plotting the exact right flight times, etc. You should see my spreadsheets from our past several vacations.

So I will happily plan this itinerary, and I will do it specifically for my friends at Boise State. We will be staying in reasonable hotels. Not the Four Seasons, but also not Motel 6. Also, if this were real life, I would wait until right before kickoff to buy game tickets, but we’ll use current prices.

Fiesta Bowl: Broncos fans already have snapped up every flight between Boise and Phoenix the days before and after the game, so we’ll have to fly in the morning of Dec. 31 and stay until Jan. 2.

Flights (Southwest): $1,432
Hotel (two nights, Holiday Inn Express): $414
Tickets (including fees): $396
Total: $2,242

Orange Bowl: I found a shockingly low fare on United if you’re willing to fly Basic Economy (can’t choose your seat or bring a carry-on). Buy now and bank the credit if you don’t end up using it.

Flights: $490
Hotel (two nights, Fairfield Inn in Fort Lauderdale): $460
Tickets: $620
Total: $1,570

National championship: The interesting wrinkle here is that Boise State could be the one to knock off Georgia, which would send ticket prices in Atlanta plummeting. But we can’t account for that right now.

Flights (Delta basic): $1,118
Hotel (three nights, Hilton Garden Inn): $446
Tickets: $2,400
Total: $3,964

All told, you’re shelling out $7,776, even before accounting for food, drinks and transportation. In hindsight, the Eras Tour was a bargain compared to the CFP.

(Top photo of Kevin Jennings: Isaiah Vazquez / Getty Images)