Two years ago, and two time zones away from New Orleans, these two teams met on the sport’s biggest stage.
But the backdrop for Super Bowl LVII was much different than it is for LIX. The Philadelphia Eagles came in with Nick Sirianni and Jalen Hurts bursting onto the scene, a fresh-faced staff and a loaded roster around them—and house money to play on in Arizona. The Kansas City Chiefs, meanwhile, were in their third Super Bowl in four years and had dealt with consecutive winters of postseason disappointment after winning Andy Reid’s first Lombardi Trophy in February 2020.
Twenty-four months later, the Eagles arrive in Louisiana with Sirianni having survived a year on the hot seat, a reworked veteran staff behind him and Hurts on a blockbuster second contract. The Chiefs enter New Orleans as the unquestioned kings of the league, making their fifth trip to this stage in six years, in search of a fourth Lombardi Trophy for Reid and Patrick Mahomes—which would put them even with Terry Bradshaw and Chuck Noll for second in Super Bowl wins as a coach/quarterback combo, behind only Bill Belichick and Tom Brady.
And just as these teams’ circumstances have changed, so have their rosters. Kansas City’s young defense has grown up. The Eagles have gotten younger and faster on that side of the ball. The Chiefs have infused speed back into their offense, with Xavier Worthy and Marquise “Hollywood” Brown, after initially going with a bigger more physical skill group post-Tyreek Hill. Saquon Barkley’s here now, too.
We are as well, and will be breaking the whole thing down for you with six days left until kickoff at the Superdome.
Over in the takeaways, we’ve covered it all, from the impact of Barkley’s year, to the Dallas Cowboys ownership on the Brian Schottenheimer hire, to the Minnesota Vikings QBs, to the top of the draft … and a whole lot more. But we’re starting here, with 10 nitty-gritty elements to watch for in the big game.
And to help, I brought in a head coach, an offensive coordinator, a defensive coordinator and two pro scouting directors that faced both the Eagles and Chiefs this year.
Let’s go …
• The one overarching thing about this matchup is the contrast in scheme that exists across the board—with one team that’ll throw the kitchen sink at you, and another that will rely on playing fast, executing and beating you with its best players.
“Two totally different animals,” says one of our coaches. “Nobody’s simpler than the Eagles offense. It’s static formations. It’s slower shifts and motions to get a little bit of information, but it’s all about the run game. Spags [Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo] isn’t going to sit back there and play a coverage or two. He’s going to throw different things at you. …
“So you have this aggressive style with Spags. On the flip side, you have [Eagles DC Vic] Fangio who, within the scheme, makes these little formational adjustments, based on where the halfback is. There are all these micro adjustments versus these [Chiefs’] macro-attack adjustments. There’s a cool difference in that. “
Indeed, the Eagles’ defense will have to deal with the Chiefs’ varied movement, formations and personnel groupings, while the Chiefs’ defense will have to be disciplined, patient and consistent.
• It’s no secret that in his first year as an Eagle, Barkley’s become the key to what first-year coordinator Kellen Moore—who is likely to stay here in New Orleans to become the Saints coach after the game—has built. So, the first job for Spagnuolo’s group will be to prevent Barkley from running wild, which is easier said than done.
It’s not like the Green Bay Packers, Los Angeles Rams and Washington Commanders didn’t know what they had to do against Barkley and Philly’s mountainous line. And the 2,000-yard rusher went for 119, 205 and 118 yards rushing, respectively, in those games.
“It’s gap discipline—you got to tackle,” says one of our execs. “You have to be able to finish tackles on him one-on-one. If he breaks it to the perimeter, that’s where the 50-yard chunk run plays come. He’s good at setting up things. Say it’s a run to the left, he slows plays it and then the ’backer overflows and you lose one gap on the back side, then he cuts it back and it’s a big chunk run. It’s honestly just numbers and gap discipline. Your perimeter guys are going to have to tackle him.”
“You got to pressure it, which Spags will do, and make sure that you don’t give him a lot of space,” says one of our coaches. “If he has space, he’s going to make you miss.”
Ultimately, that means winning on first down and getting the Eagles into long yardage.
One hidden key player in that effort? Chiefs linebacker Leo Chenal, who a couple of coaches mentioned as a player that Spagnuolo can deploy as a hybrid—someone stout enough to set edges, and athletic enough to work in space—chess piece to stop Barkley.
• The trouble with just winning on first down? The quarterback run game comes into play on second-and-long, when defenses put lighter personnel on the field.
“They run so much quarterback run game on second-and-long,” says another of our coaches. “It’s quarterback draws, designed runs, gap-read scheme. At some point, while they’re off track, they’ll use Hurts’s legs in some way, shape or form. It’ll be interesting to see how they play second down. That’ll be the key. That’s what Philly does such a good job of is it’s second-and-10 and they get into empty and they run a quarterback draw and now it’s third-and-2.”
“You can’t let them get on third-and-short, fourth-and-short with the tush push,” says one of our execs. “They’re impossible to stop there.”
If the Eagles can effectively pull that off, and stay out of third-and-long, then it becomes even harder for Spagnuolo to dial up pressure, and move Chris Jones around on the defensive line. “That guy’s worth every penny they paid him,” says another of our execs. “Truly a game-wrecker. You can put him inside, outside, he can do it all.”
• So where do the Chiefs win this game on defense? It’s by forcing Hurts to go downfield—and understanding that if that’s how the Eagles beat Kansas City, then so be it.
“I would load up everything I can to stop Saquon because he’s really what makes them go,” says one of the coaches. “The point of emphasis for the defense will be to win one-on-one matchups on the outside. You’re going to get 50-50s, so your guys got to be able to knock the ball down.”
“Start with 22 [Trent McDuffie] being able to cover,” says another coach. “I’m sure they’ll put the bigger guy on A.J. [Brown], 22’s going to have to deal with DeVonta Smith. That matchup’s key.”
• On the flip side, the matchup starts with Philly defensive tackles Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis, and what Kansas City can do to stop them. A couple of our insiders suggested moving Joe Thuney back to guard from left tackle—where he’s stabilized things and halted a revolving door on Mahomes’s blind side—while perhaps putting veteran left tackle D.J. Humphries (who’s been banged up) back in the lineup.
“I would,” says one of our coaches. “The edge rushers are good for Philly, but they’re not those two inside guys. That’s a key to the game. Can the Chiefs hold up? … The best part of the Chiefs is their three interior people. Where’s Thuney going to play? If you have three inside with him, Trey Smith and Creed Humphrey, that’s strength against strength.”
Another strategy for dealing with Carter and Davis? Playing fast. Which, interestingly enough, isn’t generally in Kansas City’s wheelhouse, and something the Eagles could do, too—with the Chiefs’ best rusher also a bigger body who plays on the inside.
“If you’re playing Philly, you want to get Davis and Carter tired, and on the flip side it’s what you’d do with Jones,” says another of our coaches. “I think you’ll probably see Philly play more tempo than Kansas City. That’s not really Kansas City’s operation as much.”
• Fangio’s simplistic scheme tries to get a quarterback in the second or two after the snap, and there really aren’t coverage tells until after the ball’s in play. “It’s hard for any quarterback if he can’t hold the ball longer than three seconds,” says one of our coaches. “That’s the beauty of that defensive scheme.”
So, for the Eagles, it’ll be about whether Carter, Davis and Milton Williams can win up front before Mahomes deciphers what coverage Philly is running—with a caveat. And that stipulation isn’t exactly a secret. The Eagles have to pin Mahomes in the pocket and make him beat them from there.
He is, of course, really good in that box. But he’s deadly throwing off-script.
“Their edge players are going to have to be really disciplined about retracing and keeping him in there,” continued the coach. “That doesn’t always work out. You keep him in there, he has more time to throw. Those are some of the general things that Pat’s seen. He’s seen this scheme and this system a bunch. Some of the muddied-up two-shell looks, it bothers some quarterbacks. You’re hoping it bothers him long enough for Carter to get home, and for Nolan Smith Jr. to get his rushes.”
• Making Philadelphia’s job more difficult is the presence of Travis Kelce, who doesn’t run like he used to but is one of the smartest, savviest players on the field. So, sure, you can put a spy on Mahomes, but if you do that, you’re taking a middle-of-the-field resource away, which opens things up for Kelce.
And the two of them in tandem, even at Kelce’s advanced age, have a way of erasing any advantage a defense might have in a look or a situation the Chiefs are up against.
“It’s just the fact that it doesn’t matter the down and distance,” one coach says. “It’s Mahomes. “He’ll go to Canton on just his play extension alone, and the connection he’s always had with Kelce. That’s what makes him so unique, is some of the stuff goes off schedule and he has such a good feel for it. They can call any kind of man-breaking route, and it’s not there, Travis can sit down in zones, [and] they’ve got that chemistry to make it work.
“Both of them have made a living off that. The disrupting of Kelce is paramount. That’s why you see Kelce early in games not have a lot of production, because they’re so focused on taking him out of games.”
• So, if there’s a hidden edge there for the Chiefs? It may be in taking advantage of how static the Eagles are—and using movement to generate matchups.
One idea that a couple of the insiders brought up was Kansas City moving its burners, Brown and Worthy, inside to get them matched up on Chauncey Gardner-Johnson and rookie Cooper DeJean playing nickel. Both those players will also likely figure into covering Kelce, so getting them in space, and having to play the small, faster guys, too, would be a challenge the Chiefs might want to present.
Fangio’s unlikely to expose those guys to getting beat badly over the top. But if the Chiefs can be consistent with it, there are yards to be had.
“You can find completions underneath,” says one of the coaches. “The first drive of the NFC championship was a perfect example of that. The Commanders had an 18-play drive. They went 50-something yards and then kicked a field goal.”
• Which, of course, brings us to the situational part of the game. Both teams are very well-schooled. Both coaches have been willing to gamble on fourth down. Both teams are going to make the opponent earn it. So turnovers, red zones and capturing the margins—and all the cliched elements you can name—will be key.
“Both teams defensively don’t make a lot of mistakes,” says one of our execs. “That’s one thing that stands out about both teams when you’re playing them—they’re both extremely well-coached. They both have a couple impact D-linemen that can really affect the game. They’re both really good top-down coverage teams. I do think it’ll be a very close game. Whoever makes one mistake probably loses the game.”
• So, who wins the game?
I had a hard time finding people who wanted to pick against Reid and Mahomes. That said, there was a ton of respect for the team Sirianni, Howie Roseman & Co. have assembled.
The Chiefs have some concerns, including the offensive line question and depth at corner.
Philly really doesn’t, which is why the formula for most teams has been to try and put the game in Hurts’s hands, even though Hurts has shown he can win on these stages.
“Philly’s got a more talented roster,” says one of our execs. “But it’s going to be hard going against Kansas City.”
Which is why, in the end, all five guys who worked with me on this didn’t.
