Welcome to the Utilization Report, where Dwain McFarland highlights his top fantasy football takeaways heading into Week 16.
The Top Fantasy Football Takeaways for Week 16
Let’s follow the data to identify the top waiver wire options, trade targets, upgrades, and downgrades based on what we learned in Week 15.
Note: as you read through the Utilization Report, you’ll notice the Utilization Score being used as a pillar of analysis. For more information on how to use the score and why it’s more predictive than fantasy points per game, read here.
Upgrades, Downgrades and Emerging Trends
1. The Bills are booming, but the offense is overcrowded.
Josh Allen has reached season-highs in passing yards in the last two games, with 342 against the Rams and 362 versus the Lions. The Bills’ passing attack is peaking at the perfect moment in the fantasy playoffs. However, with the return of Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid, playing time was spread out more than ever in Week 15—no pass catcher reached 70% route participation.
Khalil Shakir
Shakir continued to lead the team in target share (23%) and fantasy points (15.9), but his four-game streak of 80%-plus route participation ended (64%). In healthy games with less than 80% route participation, Shakir has averaged 13.9 points with a 5.3 Utilization Score—far lower than his 6.8 from Week 10 to 14. To create his comp group, I used the middle ground.
- Average fantasy points: 12.4
- WR13 to 24 finishes: 8%
- WR25 to 36 finishes: 40%
- WR37 to 48 finishes: 39%
- WR49 to 60 finishes: 11%
The upside of Buffalo’s passing attack should protect Shakir from the bottom range of outcomes here, but most of his strong comps were in the WR3 range rather than WR2.
Shakir is HOLDING STEADY as a high-end WR3 heading into Week 16.
Amari Cooper
A week after leading the Bills in target share (38%), Cooper failed to register one target, and his route participation plummeted to a five-game low (42%). The trade-deadline acquisition has yet to reach a 70% route participation rate in six games, subduing his Utilization Score to 4.1.
Cooper’s 24% TPRR with the Bills remains respectable, which points to upside should his role ever change, but Buffalo appears committed to a rotation for now.
Cooper DOWNGRADES to WR5 bench-stash status.
Dalton Kincaid
Kincaid (knee) returned from a three-game absence but trailed Dawson Knox in playing time with a 58% route participation rate. However, he picked up where he left off in the target department with a 33% TPRR.
Prior to his injury, Kincaid reached a 21% TPRR or higher in six straight contests. Hopefully, the route participation will ramp up as he gets healthier, but Kincaid has reached 80% only twice this year. The second-year tight end would offer significant upside with more playing time. For now, he provides low-end to mid-range TE1 upside based on his comps.
- Average fantasy points: 9.1
- TE7 to 9 finishes: 11%
- TE10 to 12 finishes: 22%
- TE13 to 15 finishes: 28%
- TE16 to 18 finishes: 22%
Kincaid is HOLDING STEADY as a borderline TE1.
2. Chase Brown has the most potent role in fantasy football.
Brown stands at the top of the Utilization Score mountain since the Zack Moss injury. Over his last six games, he has a 9.6 Utilization Score, averaging 23.3 points per game—second behind Saquon Barkley.
Khalil Herbert has yet to dent Brown’s workload, leaving the second-year back in complete control in Week 15 with a 92% snap share. Brown has reached a 79%-plus snap share in six straight games and surpassed a 9.0 Utilization Score in five of six starts. He has no weakness in his game, dominating the carries inside the five-yard line (100%) and the two-minute offense (93%).
Brown represents one of the true rarities in fantasy football—an every-down workhorse who also resides on a high-quality offense. Brown’s comps have averaged 20 points per game, with 85% notching a top-six finish.
Brown is a high-end RB1 regardless of matchup.
3. Rico Dowdle has entered every-down RB territory.
Over the last three games, Dowdle has led the Cowboys backfield in snaps (73%), rushing attempts (68%) and route participation (63%). Over that span, he has an 8.1 Utilization Score with 17.1 points per game.
While Dowdle has been the No. 1 in Big D for multiple weeks, recent trends point toward even more upside. First, he has handled 100% of the rushing attempts inside the five-yard line and 59% of the short-yardage snaps (SDD) over the last three games. Second, he has wrestled the two-minute offense away from Hunter Luepke with 63% and 100% snap shares over the last two games.
Those three developments move him from early-down workhorse territory into the every-down-back conversation. Without a talented challenger, it is hard to imagine Dowdle losing his grip on this dominant role—and the comps are impressive.
- Average fantasy points: 15.6
- RB1 to 6 finishes: 8%
- RB7 to 12 finishes: 50%
- RB13 to 18 finishes: 33%
- RB19 to 24 finishes: 8%
Most of Dowdle’s peers (58%) were RB1s, and those who missed were most commonly high-end RB2s (33%).
Dowdle UPGRADES to borderline RB1 territory.
4. Age is just a number to Davante Adams.
Adams will turn 32 in December but hasn’t shown any signs of decline. Since joining the Jets, he leads the team with an 8.7 Utilization Score and 18 fantasy points per game. Despite the competition from a younger high-end target earner, Adams has a 30% target share versus 26% for Garrett Wilson.
While Wilson has remained strong in his own right, Adams leads the team in most Utilization Categories. Over his last four games, Adams ranks second in Utilization Score (9.4), trailing only Ja’Marr Chase (9.7).
Based on Adams’ 8.7 Utilization Score with the Jets, he has 10 comps in our database. They averaged 17.4 points per game and 100% collected a top-12 finish, with 30% achieving top-six.
Adams UPGRADES to borderline WR1 status.
5. Utilization Score Risers
This section will highlight some of the biggest Utilization Score movers over the last four games.
Note: Sometimes, the players are the same as the previous week, and in those cases, I might highlight a different player to cover more players. Be sure to check out last week’s risers and fallers.
Running Backs
- Isaac Guerendo | 49ers (+1.0): Guerendo only managed 11.4 fantasy points in Week 15, but his underlying usage was excellent. He posted an 8.1 Utilization Score, bogarting 75% of snaps and 84% of attempts. He was also highly involved in the passing game with a 65% route participation, thanks to handling 80% of the two-minute offense snaps. Guerendo looks like the clear-cut RB1 for the 49ers moving forward—he UPGRADES to mid-range RB2 status and offers RB1 upside.
- James Conner | Cardinals (+0.4): Conner has posted back-to-back season-high Utilization Scores (9.1 and 9.2) on his way to 22.2 and 30.8 fantasy point outings. The veteran back handled his most extensive passing-game role of the season (75% route participation) in Week 15 with Emari Demercado out of action. Over the last two games, Conner has accounted for 92% and 100% of the two-minute offense snaps and 100% of the totes inside the five-yard line. The eighth-year veteran has been a mid-range RB2 for most of the season but picks up low-end RB1 upside in games without Demercado.
Wide Receivers
- Adam Thielen | Panthers (+2.0): Thielen posted a semi-dud in the boxscore with 10.1 points but still managed a top-36 finish. On a positive note, his 89% route participation was a season-high, and he led the team in target share (27%) for the third consecutive game. Jalen Coker returned to the lineup but stole work from David Moore (65% route participation) rather than Thielen. Xavier Legette is week-to-week after suffering a groin injury. Thielen has an 8.7 Utilization Score since returning to the lineup and UPGRADES from high-end WR3 status to low-end WR2 territory.
- Mike Evans | Buccaneers (+0.9): Evans has an 8.9 Utilization Score in four games without Chris Godwin, averaging 21.4 points per game. Over that stretch, he leads the team with a 29% target share, 46% air yards share, and 29% endzone target share. Additionally, 32% of his targets have come on play action—worth a 26% point-per-route boost based on the last three years of data. Evans is the top dog on the sixth-best passing offense (258 yards per game). Evans is HOLDING STEADY as a mid-range WR1 with high-end WR1 upside.
- Brian Thomas | Jaguars (+0.8): Thomas boasts the fifth-highest Utilization Score (9.1) in the NFL since Week 11. Over that span, he has averaged 20.4 fantasy points per game (fifth) with a 29% target share (10th) and 42% air yards share (eighth). Thomas is playing like an alpha with Christian Kirk, Evan Engram, and Gabe Davis out of the lineup. Thomas UPGRADES to mid-range WR2 status and offers high-end WR1 upside when Mac Jones plays well.
Tight Ends
- Stone Smartt | Chargers (+1.0): With Will Dissly (knee/shoulder) and Hayden Hurst (hip) out, Smartt stepped into the TE1 role for the Chargers. He posted a 7.3 Utilization Score and 10 fantasy points thanks to a 19% target share on a 65% route participation rate. Dissly’s injuries could force him to miss more time, and Hurst’s timeline is unknown, but he is eligible to return in Week 16. Smartt gets a TEMPORARY UPGRADE to the high-end TE2 tier if Dissly and Hurst are out.
6. Utilization Score Fallers
Running Backs
- Isiah Pacheco | Chiefs (-2.4): Pacheco looked like an every-down back over the first two weeks of the season with an 8.7 Utilization Score. Over that span, he handled 74% of the snaps, 74% of attempts, and notched a 63% route participation rate with a 16% target share. However, Pacheco has yet to regain that workload since his return three weeks ago. Over that stretch, he has a 4.7 Utilization Score with 33%, 48%, and 37% snap shares. For now, Pacheco is embroiled in a three-way committee with Kareem Hunt and Samaje Perine. Pacheco DOWNGRADES to RB4 territory.
Wide Receivers
- Cooper Kupp | Rams (-1.2): Kupp has a 5.7 Utilization Score over the last four games thanks to two duds. In Week 13, he notched a 19% target share with only 4.7 fantasy points, and in Week 15, he posted a zero-point dude with a 12% target share. He remains a must-start in fantasy, but his floor is significantly lower than we thought just a month ago. Kupp DOWNGRADES to mid-range WR2 status.
Tight Ends
- Cade Otton | Buccaneers (-0.8): Otton has TE25, 27, 10, and 22 finishes since the return of Mike Evans. Over that span, he has a 5.8 Utilization Score, averaging 6.1 points per game. He continues to see the field at a high rate (88% route participation), but his targets have fallen dramatically (15%)—Otton DOWNGRADES to the high-end TE2 tier.
7. It’s a Fugazi!!!
A few players pop up weekly in the fantasy boxscore but lack the underlying goods to back them up. They are best left for the next fantasy manager to worry about.
Donnie Brasco: « You should give it to somebody who doesn’t know any better because that’s a fugazi. »
- Ty Johnson | RB | Bills: Johnson has delivered 13.5 and 17.3 fantasy points over the last two games. However, his Utilization Score (4.9) remains in RB4 territory thanks to a 30% snap share. The veteran back has done his damage through the passing game, with a 12% target share, but has handled only 5% of the rushing attempts. Johnson is due for negative regression and remains an RB4 to RB5 option.
Waiver Wire Recommendations
8. Waiver options that are available in most leagues.
Kendre Miller | RB | Saints (89% available)
Alvin Kamara suffered a groin injury that could keep him out of Week 16. After Kamara left the game, Miller took over the backfield, not Jamaal Williams.
Miller versus Williams after the Kamara injury in Week 15:
- Snaps: 88% vs. 12%
- Attempts: 100% vs. 0%
- Routes: 81% vs. 19%
- Targets: 8% vs. 0%
This is a tiny sample, but the Saints have been reticent about giving Williams touches all season. The Saints’ offense is quarterback-challenged and lacks the weaponry to mount a high-end scoring attack, but Miller is the favorite to lead the team if Kamara can’t go.
The Saints will be heavy underdogs to the Saints next week but get the Raiders in Week 17.
Miller UPGRADES to low-end RB2 territory without Kamara.
Jalen McMillan | WR | Buccaneers (92%)
McMillan has been the Bucs’ No. 2 receiving option with an 82% route participation since their Week 11 bye. The third-round rookie battled injuries early in the season but could be on the verge of a breakout.
Over the last two games, he has a 7.5 Utilization Score, averaging 20.2 points per game.
Over that span, he has a 25% target share and a 29% air yards share—numbers that should grab our attention in one of the best passing attacks in the NFL. The range of outcomes on McMillan is wide, but 24% of his comps were WR24s or better. That makes him worth stashing in most formats.
McMillan is a PRIORITY WAIVER wire target—he UPGRADES to boom-bust WR4 status and offers WR2 upside.
Jalen Coker | WR | Panthers (98%)
Coker returned to action and stepped into a significant role with Xavier Legette suffering a groin injury. The undrafted rookie out of Holy Cross posted a 7.5 Utilization Score with 21 fantasy points thanks to a busted-coverage 83-yard TD.
While he won’t likely be rewarded with another freebie TD this season, Coker finished second on the team in route participation (84%) and target share (23%). He has reached a 75% route participation rate or higher in three contests this season—averaging 14.8 points.
Coker UPGRADES to boom-bust WR4 territory if Legette is out.
Brenton Strange | TE | Jaguars (98%)
With Evan Engram out for the season, Strange stepped into a massive role in Week 15, with a 28% target share. The second-round NFL Draft pick from 2023 finished second on the team with 11 targets on his way to a team-leading 9.3 Utilization Score.
While expecting another 18.3-point fantasy performance in the coming weeks isn’t realistic, we have seen teams feed tight ends underneath zone coverage for multiple weeks when needed (e.g., Cade Otton). Strange has a draft pedigree, and Jacksonville needs someone besides Thomas to step up with Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis also out for the year.
Strange UPGRADES to the borderline TE1 tier.
9. Not available in my league, pal!
These players aren’t available in sicko leagues (I feel ya), but believe it or not, most of the Milky Way galaxy doesn’t play in a sicko league. If available, please allow us sicko-leaguers to live vicariously through you and prioritize these options off the waiver wire.
Jerome Ford | RB | Browns (57%)
Nick Chubb suffered a broken foot, ending his season and opening the door for Ford to take another swing at the lead role in Cleveland. In Weeks 1 through 5, Ford was the team’s top back with a 67% snap share and 52% rush share. Over that span, he posted a 7.4 Utilization Score but averaged only 11.9 points in an anemic pre-Jameis Winston offense.
In Week 15, he posted a 6.0 Utilization Score and 18.4 points, with Chubb only playing 33% of the snaps.
Ford is worth a waiver wire claim, but the Browns could move to Dorian Thompson-Robinson as the starting quarterback after another multi-interception game from Winston. The team isn’t committed to having Winston as the starter moving forward.
Additionally, we could see D’Onta Foreman and Pierre Strong siphon touches from Ford as we did early in the year—holding the third-year back below 50% of the rushing attempts in three of five games. Having said that, there is also a runout where the Browns feature Ford and give Winston another chance as the starter. If those two things happen, Ford will quickly climb the ranks.
Ford UPGRADES to borderline RB2 territory but would offer high-end RB2 upside if Winston remains the starter and the Browns commit to Ford on early downs. Cleveland has a favorable matchup against the Bengals in Week 16.
Hollywood Brown | WR | Chiefs (74%)
Brown could return as soon as Week 16, which makes him worth rostering if you have room. We won’t trust him in lineups out of the gate, but there is a chance he performs well enough that he could become an option in Week 17. Of course, that assumes Patrick Mahomes, who is week-to-week with a high ankle injury, is under center rather than Carson Wentz.
Brown is a WR5 stash play who could offer WR3 upside in Week 17.
10. Stash plays: patience and foresight are required.
If you play in a sicko league, here are some names that are more likely to be available. They should not be sitting on the wire due to potential value in the future, but they likely won’t be helping your fantasy squad next weekend.
Isaiah Davis | RB | Jets (83%)
Braelon Allen left the Week 15 contest with a back injury, leaving Davis as the No. 2 back behind Breece Hall. It was also Hall’s first game back from injury, which kept the utilization close for the Jets backfield. Davis registered a 39% snap share versus 48% for Hall.
Davis could find himself in a starting role if Allen misses time and Hall suffers a setback, which makes him worth a stash in deeper formats.
Davis is a mid-range RB4 if Allen is out and offers contingent RB2 upside should something happen to Hall. Over the final two weeks of the fantasy season, the Jets have favorable matchups against the Rams and Bills.
Malik Washington | WR | Dolphins (99%)
Jaylen Waddle is day-to-day after suffering a knee injury that knocked him out of the game against the Texans. While Waddle avoided a season-ending blow, his availability for Week 16 is in question.
Washington stepped into Waddle’s role with a 70% route participation and 15% target share. The Round 6 NFL Draft pick was known for his yards-after-the-catch (YAC) prowess at Virginia and could shoulder a full workload with Odell Beckham released last week.
Washington will enter the boom-bust WR4 conversation if Waddle misses time, but the matchup against the 49ers won’t be easy in Week 16.
P.S. Remember to revisit last week’s stash plays for additional options that could still be on your waiver wire.
More Fantasy Football Takeaways Ahead Of Week 16
Running Back Utilization Bytes
- Brian Robinson: Robinson only managed 11.7 points in Week 15, but his underlying utilization was great. He led the team in snaps (73%), rushing attempts (59%), and route participation—leading to a 7.9 Utilization Score despite the mediocre fantasy outing. Robinson is HOLDING STEADY in the high-end RB2 tier while Austin Ekeler is out (two more games).
- Chuba Hubbard: Hubbard disappointed fantasy managers with only 8.9 points in a favorable matchup against Dallas. However, he rarely left the field with a 94% snap share—elite territory. The Panthers offense remains problematic, but Hubbard is HOLDING STEADY as a mid-range to high-end RB2.
- Jaguars RBs: In three games since the bye, Travis Etienne has led the team with a 6.6 Utilization Score versus 4.7 for Tank Bigsby. Etienne has led the team in attempts and routes in two out of three games. Over that span, he has accounted for 80% of the two-minute offense. Etienne is HOLDING STEADY as a mid-range RB3 while Bigsby DOWNGRADES to high-end RB4 status.
- Jahmyr Gibbs: David Montgomery suffered a season-ending MCL injury, leading to a massive role for Gibbs against the Bills. Over the last two seasons, Gibbs has reached a 60%-plus snap share nine times, averaging 21.7 points per game. In those contests, he scored 24-plus fantasy points five times. Gibbs UPGRADES to high-end RB1 status and is going to win fantasy leagues.
- Najee Harris: Harris registered season-lows in Utilization Score (3.2) and fantasy points (3.1) after a costly fumble against the Eagles. The former first-round pick has a 6.3 Utilization Score in games with a healthy Jaylen Warren this season, and that number dips to 6.0, including healthy Cordarrelle Patterson games. Since Week 10, Harris has a 51% rush share and 31% route participation, averaging 11.9 points per game. Harris DOWNGRADES to borderline RB2 status; 50% of his comps finished as RB3s.
- Tyjae Spears: Tony Pollard was limited by an ankle injury in Week 15 against the Bengals, which opened the door for more playing time for Spears. Over the last two games, the second-year back has taken charge of the passing-down work, posting 47% and 68% route participation rates. He has taken 100% of the two-minute offense snaps in those two games. However, his role has remained limited, with only 21% and 15% of the attempts. Spears UPGRADES to high-end RB4 territory and offers RB2 upside if Pollard misses time.
- Tyrone Tracy: Tracy notched a 4.5-point dud, but his underlying utilization aligned with his recent averages. The rookie led the backfield in snaps (67%), attempts (50%), routes (50%), and target share (12%). Tracy is HOLDING STEADY as a mid-range to low-end RB2.
Wide Receiver Utilization Bytes
- Brandin Cooks: Cooks’ route participation has climbed from 54% to 93% since returning from injury in Week 13. Over that span, he hasn’t been a below-average target earner (17% TPRR), but he is the No. 2 WR in Dallas—Cooks UPGRADES to WR5 status.
- Browns WRs: Jameis Winston was benched due to interceptions, and Kevin Stefanski left the door open for a quarterback change. Dorian Thompson-Robinson has thrown for 121 and 165 yards with zero TDs in his two full games as a starter. He has a career completion rate of 51%. If Winston leaves the starting lineup, Jerry Jeudy DOWNGRADES to low-end WR3 territory, Elijah Moore and Cedric Tillman DOWNGRADE to WR5 status, and David Njoku falls to the low-end TE1 tier.
- Calvin Austin: With George Pickens again, Austin stepped into a full-time role with a 92% route participation and 28% target share. The third-year WR tallied a 6.6 Utilization Score with 11.5 fantasy points. Austin is averaging 10.2 points over the last four games. Austin gets a temporary upgrade to boom-bust WR4 status in games without Pickens.
- DK Metcalf: Geno Smith left the game against Green Bay due to a knee injury and is undergoing further tests. Metcalf has struggled since his return to the lineup in Week 11, averaging 9.8 points with a 6.6 Utilization Score. He continues to battle a shoulder injury that could be limiting his effectiveness. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has become the more dependable option with favorable matchups on the inside. Metcalf DOWNGRADES to WR3 status until further notice.
- Josh Downs: Downs returned to action from a shoulder injury and played a full-time role with an 86% route participation. He finished second on the team with a 23% target share but couldn’t get much going, with only 38% of his targets graded as catchable by PFF. Downs is one of the premier young slot WRs in the NFL, but Anthony Richardson‘s up-and-down nature remains a giant obstacle. Downs is HOLDING STEADY as a boom-bust WR4.
- Romeo Doubs: Doubs returned from a two-game absence (concussion) to lead the Packers’ receiving corps in fantasy points with 19. In ten healthy games, Doubs has reached 17 points or higher three times while failing to reach 10 points six times. His Utilization Score (5.8) comps have finished as a WR3 or better only 16% of the time, with 42% notching WR4 campaigns. Doubs is HOLDING STEADY as a mid-range WR4.
Tight End Utilization Bytes
- Mark Andrews: Andrews eclipsed a 75% route participation (79%) in a game with Isaiah Likely for the first time this season. After a rough start to the season, Andrews has delivered six top-10 finishes in his last nine starts. If his Week 15 increase in route participation is the beginning of a trend, we could see fireworks down the stretch. In a full-time role, Andrews would challenge for high-end TE1 status, but for now, he is HOLDING STEADY as a mid-range TE1 option.
- Pat Freiermuth: Freiermuth has a 7.7 Utilization Score in two games without George Pickens, averaging 12 points with a 21% target share. Freiermuth gets a TEMPORARY UPGRADE to low-end TE1 territory until Pickens returns.
